More fun with The Hardball Times
As we move closer to Spring Training, it is time to take a final look at the regular lineup. In this edition, we are looking at last year’s lineup and this year’s lineup using THT’s metrics for hitting and fielding. More specifically, we will use batter runs (BR) and gross production average (GPA) for offense and zone rating differential (ZRdiff) and outs outside of zone (OOZ) for fielding.
Batter runs measure a player’s overall offensive contribution to a team in terms of quantity. In other words, the more you play the better you will do automatically. GPA on the other hand is a qualitative stat. It has a hard formula, but also includes an adjustment for home ballpark. The hard copy of THT published their zone rating as the difference between the player’s total and the league average at that position. Outs outside of zone is exactly how it sounds. It is the number of plays a player makes outside of his fielding zone.
One of the things I always look for is what I would call positive and negative impact seasons. When a player finishes in the top five at his position in any particular category then it is a positive impact season. If he finishes in the bottom five then it is negative impact season. We will see a (+) next to positive impact seasons and (-) next to negative impact seasons.
- . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .BR. . .GPA. . .ZRdiff. . .OOZ
- Ivan Rodriguez. . ..(-)39..(-)222. . . .—. . . .—
- Lance Berkman. . . . .87. . ..310. . .-.026. . …46
- Kaz Matsui. . . . . .(-)52..(-)227. . . .003. ..(-)23
- Geoff Blum. . . . . .(-)42..(-)235. . . .027. ..(-)20
- Miguel Tejada. . . . . .82.. ..270. .(-)-.029 . . .51
- Carlos Lee. . . . . . . ..90. . .279. .(-)-.081. . .51
- Michael Bourn. . . .(+)87. . .258. .(+).018.(+)113
- Hunter Pence. . . . . .85. . ..277. . ..-.004. .(+)81
- Total. . . . . . . . . . 564. . ..260. . ..-.013. . .385
So, when we look at positive and negative impacts we see that there were eight negative impact seasons and only four positive impact seasons. However, this isn’t completely fair because catchers are graded differently than the other position players. Ivan Rodriguez had two positive impact performances out of three on the fielding in (both in regards to limiting the running game). So, last season wasn’t a complete disaster.
This is when we start to look at this year. We have three changes to the regular lineup that will be a pretty big impact. Humberto Quintero takes Rodriguez’s place behind the plate. Pedro Feliz takes Geoff Blum’s spot at third, and Tommy Manzella takes Miguel Tejada’s spot at short. Since Manzella is a rookie we will give him average marks on fielding and equal to the lowest on offense.
- . . . . . . . . . . . . .BR. . . .GPA. . . .ZRdiff. . . .OOZ
- Humbert Quintero. 14. . . .225. . . . .—. . . . ..—
- Pedro Feliz. . . . . .62. . . .231. . . . .028. . . . …32
- Tommy Manzella. ..31. . . .211. . . . .000. . . . …45
We see two more negative impact offensive seasons (from Tommy Manzella) and one fewer negative impact fielding seasons. The changes in the lineup dip the batter runs down to 508. Naturally, Quintero should create more than 14 runs, but you get the idea. The GPA dropped to .252 and that is a bit more alarming. The ZR improved slightly though and that is what the Astros will be hanging their hat on.
Next time, we will take a look how the Astros compare with the rest of the NL Central. Obviously, while the numbers say the Astros are worse you cannot know for sure. Sometimes players get better and sometimes they get worse. When you base analysis on one season you can miss the mark at times. However, these numbers confirm what I have been saying. This team has been moving backwards and passing it off as progress.
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