More fun with The Hardball Times

As we move closer to Spring Training, it is time to take a final look at the regular lineup. In this edition, we are looking at last year’s lineup and this year’s lineup using THT’s metrics for hitting and fielding. More specifically, we will use batter runs (BR) and gross production average (GPA) for offense and zone rating differential (ZRdiff) and outs outside of zone (OOZ) for fielding.

Batter runs measure a player’s overall offensive contribution to a team in terms of quantity. In other words, the more you play the better you will do automatically. GPA on the other hand is a qualitative stat. It has a hard formula, but also includes an adjustment for home ballpark. The hard copy of THT published their zone rating as the difference between the player’s total and the league average at that position. Outs outside of zone is exactly how it sounds. It is the number of plays a player makes outside of his fielding zone.

One of the things I always look for is what I would call positive and negative impact seasons. When a player finishes in the top five at his position in any particular category then it is a positive impact season. If he finishes in the bottom five then it is negative impact season. We will see a (+) next to positive impact seasons and (-) next to negative impact seasons.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .BR. . .GPA. . .ZRdiff. . .OOZ

Ivan Rodriguez. . ..(-)39..(-)222. . . .—. . . .—

Lance Berkman. . . . .87. . ..310. . .-.026. . …46

Kaz Matsui. . . . . .(-)52..(-)227. . . .003. ..(-)23

Geoff Blum. . . . . .(-)42..(-)235. . . .027. ..(-)20

Miguel Tejada. . . . . .82.. ..270. .(-)-.029 . . .51

Carlos Lee. . . . . . . ..90. . .279. .(-)-.081. . .51

Michael Bourn. . . .(+)87. . .258. .(+).018.(+)113

Hunter Pence. . . . . .85. . ..277. . ..-.004. .(+)81

Total. . . . . . . . . . 564. . ..260. . ..-.013. . .385

So, when we look at positive and negative impacts we see that there were eight negative impact seasons and only four positive impact seasons. However, this isn’t completely fair because catchers are graded differently than the other position players. Ivan Rodriguez had two positive impact performances out of three on the fielding in (both in regards to limiting the running game). So, last season wasn’t a complete disaster.

This is when we start to look at this year. We have three changes to the regular lineup that will be a pretty big impact. Humberto Quintero takes Rodriguez’s place behind the plate. Pedro Feliz takes Geoff Blum’s spot at third, and Tommy Manzella takes Miguel Tejada’s spot at short. Since Manzella is a rookie we will give him average marks on fielding and equal to the lowest on offense.

. . . . . . . . . . . . .BR. . . .GPA. . . .ZRdiff. . . .OOZ

Humbert Quintero. 14. . . .225. . . . .—. . . . ..—

Pedro Feliz. . . . . .62. . . .231. . . . .028. . . . …32

Tommy Manzella. ..31. . . .211. . . . .000. . . . …45

We see two more negative impact offensive seasons (from Tommy Manzella) and one fewer negative impact fielding seasons. The changes in the lineup dip the batter runs down to 508. Naturally, Quintero should create more than 14 runs, but you get the idea. The GPA dropped to .252 and that is a bit more alarming. The ZR improved slightly though and that is what the Astros will be hanging their hat on.

Next time, we will take a look how the Astros compare with the rest of the NL Central. Obviously, while the numbers say the Astros are worse you cannot know for sure. Sometimes players get better and sometimes they get worse. When you base analysis on one season you can miss the mark at times. However, these numbers confirm what I have been saying. This team has been moving backwards and passing it off as progress.

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Meet the Pirates

2009 Record: 62-99 (6th)

Pythag: 67-94

Coming: 2B Akinori Iwamura, RP Brendan Donnelly, CL Octavio Dotel

Going: RP Matt Capps

The coming and going category is a bit deceiving. Most of the prominent Pirates left sometime last season, so there was no one left to put in the category. The starting first basemen, second basemen, shortstop, and centerfielder all left via trade. To outsiders, the Pirates seem like an etch a sketch that always seems to be erased before it becomes a full pitcher. Scott Lewis was good enough to answer some questions about the coming season.

Do you feel like the Bucs are moving in the right direction?

I do. I was one of the few people that follow the team that was happy with the Nate McLouth trade. It wasn’t so much the return, but that it signaled a dramatic shift was coming. A lot of people look at the deals Neal Huntington made last season, and quickly pass them off as typical Pirates behavior, but if you look at Triple-A Indianapolis and Double-A Altoona you’ll see that it’s a completely restocked system.

Although, I wish there were a few more solid pitching prospects, I have to say that I’m happy with where the team appears to be going. They’re still a couple of years away from being taken seriously, but they also have the potential to emerge like the Tampa Rays did in 2008.

After the latest round of veteran trades last season, do you think Bucs fans will give this current nuclues a chance?

It appears as though management and ownership will make a move to lock-up the core of youth they have right now. Andrew McCutchen is going to be a star in this league, and they’re going to want to control him for as long as possible. McCutchen and Lastings Milledge have the potential to be one of the most dynamic outfield/speed and power combos in baseball, but there’s still some figuring out to do in right field.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Zach Duke or Paul Maholm shopped around next season, perhaps even both of them could be moved. In all likelihood Huntington is going to want to give McCutchen, Milledge, Garrett Jones, and co. a chance to carry this franchise.

Are you at all concerned/interested in the MLBPA challenging the Marlins on their lack of spending? Do you see the same happening to Pittsburgh?

I’m more interested in it than concerned about it, I think it was a responsible move by the MLBPA. I would only hope that MLB would counter with concerns of the Yankees and Red Sox over spending, I’m a Toronto guy and it’s painful watching a team play in the A.L. East. In regards to Pittsburgh being challenged on their lack of spending, I’d be happy to see the team spend some money to retain talent and make this team competitive again.

Who are some players from the Bucs that you think will surprise fans of the Central?

I believe Joel Hanrahan still has something to offer. He’s a big guy and he’s got a good mix of moving fastballs and good off-speed stuff, I think it’s possible that he could be the team’s closer by season’s end. Ross Ohlendorf is another big pitcher with some upside, he had a coming out party of sorts last season with a 3.92 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, he’d be a 12-15 game winner somewhere else. Ohlendorf is smart, too. He’s the kind of competitor that will likely enter his prime later than most.

I don’t think I’m alone when I say I want to see what Jeff Clement can do at the Major League level. I don’t care where they have to stick him, let us see if this guy can tear the cover off the ball like he has at every other level. The Pirates are thin on natural power hitters, if Clement can be patient at the plate then there’s no reason why he can’t hit 20-25 home runs next season. Perhaps more.

Pedro Alvarez was the prize of the draft two years ago. Do you think he’s ready for the show?

I tried to watch and read as much about Alvarez as I could last season, and believe me; he’s going to be a superstar. One thing that Neal Huntington has done well since the moment he became general manager is take his time with youth. Many people thought that McCutchen should have been called up in 2008, but he waited until Cutch was ready to step in and play everyday. I see the Pirates being every bit as careful with Alvarez, he’ll probably start next season in Triple-A or be sent there early on. I’d love to see him get a shot in 2010, but if it happens it’s most likely to be late in the season.

Catch the rest of the NL Central with my fellow colleagues. I answer some of their questions and it’s always good to see what the enemy is up to.

http://cubspack.com
http://redswhiteandblue.com
http://baseballbrew.com
http://piratesproperty.com
http://redbirdroost.com

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Meet the Cardinals

W-L Record: 91-91 (1st)

Pythag Record: 91-71

Coming: SP Brad Penny, 3B David Freese

Going: SP Joel Pineiro, 3B Matt DeRosa, 3B Troy Glaus

Ryan Boyer was kind enough to answer some of my questions coming into the 2010 season. Like last year, there may be some holes (ESPN.com doesn’t even list a fifth starter) but Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan always seem to find a way. The two-headed monster of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday are back. Couple that with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright and it might be enough again.

Matt Holliday signed the huge (7 years, 119 million) deal and Pujols is due a huge deal. Do you see him sticking it out long-term and if so, do you think they will be able to afford to surround those two guys with enough good players to win?

Call it wishful thinking if you want, but I do think Pujols will stick around in the long term. He loves the city and has said that when he signed his last contract he felt the Cardinals did him a favor by giving him a seven-year deal when they didn’t have to. I think Albert will give the Cards a bit of a “hometown discount”, but he’ll still surely get well over $150 million. I do worry about the team the Cardinals will be able to field around their two sluggers, as Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Kyle Lohse have multiple years and lots of money left on their deals, as well. Priority No. 1 should be to re-stock a farm system that has been gutted due to trades, as they will need their young, cost-effective guys to perform with so much money tied to their stars.

Dave Duncan seems to have a knack for taking struggling veterans and turning them into competent pitchers. What do you think his secret is?

I wish I knew. Duncan’s track record of turning formally “washed up” pitchers into viable starters again is unparalleled. His gameplan is typically to find one thing that that particular pitcher still does well and have them focus solely on that strength. Last year, for example, he finally convinced Joel Pineiro, who had primarily been a four-seam fastball guy, that his sinker could be a terrific pitch. And sure enough, Pineiro threw sinker after sinker on his way to leading baseball in GB/FB rate.

The Cardinals have had a few young players come up and several others dealt in deals to get Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa. What is left in the farm system that competitors in the NL Central should know about?

As I mentioned above, the system has definitely been gutted due to trades (and some players underperforming, as well). Baseball America ranked their farm system 8th last year but this year BA ranked it 29th. There are still a few guys to keep an eye on, though. Lefty Jaime Garcia missed most of last year following Tommy John surgery, but he came back strong at the end of the year. He’ll be given a shot to win the No. 5 spot in the rotation and, at 23 with groundball tendencies and strikeout ability, he has significant upside. Shelby Miller was the team’s first-round pick last year and has tons of upside, but he’s a few years away. Eduardo Sanchez is a reliever that dominated in Double-A last year. He got a spring training invite and is probably the team’s closer of the future.

Which position player and pitcher do you think is going to surprise us and become a household name this year?

I think David Freese could surprise at third base. He has hit at every level in the minor leagues and could give the team some cheap power. As far as a pitcher, I’ll go with Garcia.

Tony LaRussa seems to be going year to year. How much longer do you think he remains as manager and do most Cardinal fans view him as a Hall of Fame manager?

It’s tough to predict what La Russa will do. It’s been his policy to go year to year with his deals, but he did sign a multi-year contract this offseason. That said, if he feels after this year that he’s not wanted (which is very unlikely), I don’t think he would hesitate to step down. I don’t think there is a single Cardinals fan or any other baseball fan for that matter that doesn’t view him as a sure-fire Hall of Famer. The guy will probably wind up with the second most wins of all-time (and really the most of all-time, since Connie Mack was a “manager” in name only for a lots of his wins).

How do you think the controversy surrounding Mark McGwire will affect the team?

I think it’s much ado about nothing, to be honest. It’s fresh in everyone’s mind now, but by midseason I doubt McGwire will be talked about all that much.

Please check out the blogs in the rest of the Central to catch up on my answers to Astros questions and for great news updates from my colleagues. Their web addresses are below. Please give them a look.

http://cubspack.com
http://redswhiteandblue.com
http://baseballbrew.com
http://piratesproperty.com
http://redbirdroost.com

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Meet the Cubs

W-L Record: 83-78 (2nd)

Pythag: 84-77

Arriving: OF Marlon Byrd, SP Carlos Silva

Departing: OF Milton Bradley, SP Rich Harden, RP Kevin Gregg

Welcome to the second part of our five part series on the NL Central. Mark Sherrard was gracious enough to answer my questions about the Cubs in 2010. 2009 was supposed to be a coronation for the Cubs, but the season ended in disappointment. Milton Bradley was dealt, but little else happened for the Cubs. They are rumored to be in on Kiko Calero and Ben Sheets as this goes to press.

Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto struggled a lot last season and so did the Cubs. Do you see them as integral parts of their success or do you think they have enough to compete without those two having good years?

I think that getting Soriano and Soto back on track is very important to the Cubs success. The Cubs offense struggled a lot last year. Although some of the struggles could be contributed to the injury of Aramis Ramirez, having Soriano and Soto struggling certainly compounded the issues. Add to it the struggles of Fontenot and Bradley and the offense last year was pretty much Derrek Lee and Ryan Theriot.

Soriano has proven capable of carrying the Cubs for stretches in the past and he is probably the most important hitter that the Cubs need to bounce back. Signing Soriano’s former hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo probably was done mainly to help Soriano with the hopes of helping the others as well.

A lot was made of Milton Bradley’s affect on the clubhouse. Do you think that issue was overblown or do you think his absence will help the Cubs take off?

I think that when a team is going bad, a player like Bradley can make things worse by bringing unnecessary attention to the problems with the team and generally affecting the mood of the clubhouse as a whole. Was everything that happened Bradley’s fault? Of course not. But he certainly didn’t help matters much.

Rudy Jaramillo (a former Astros hitting coach) is reknown as one of the best in the game. I couldn’t help but notice how many former pupils are on the team. Was that purposeful or a good accident?

While with the Rangers, Jaramillo worked with both Marlon Byrd and Alfonso Soriano. Byrd had some of his best years with the Rangers (although some of that can be attributed to the ballpark). Soriano also put up good numbers while with Texas.

So, hiring Jaramillo could certainly be seen as purposeful to get Soriano back on track and probably helped sway Marlon Byrd to sign with the Cubs. However, Jaramillo is also considered the best hitting coach in the business, so hiring him was probably done to improve the offense as a whole and not just help one or two players.

Coming into last season, the Cubs rotation was pegged as one of the best. Do you think they will have a good one without Rich Harden? If you had to pick out one pitcher we haven’t heard of that could surprise us, who would it be?

Although there are still rumors that the Cubs might pursue another starting pitcher, its becoming more and more apparent that they intend to replace Harden internally. The current candidates to replace Harden are Carlos Silva, Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija. So, although I think that they will still have a good pitching staff, they will take a step back from 2009 with the loss of Harden.

I think the biggest surprise for the Cubs could be Jay Jackson. He pitched well at 3 levels in the minors last year and will be one of the first pitchers the Cubs call on should one of their starters suffer an injury (Lilly, Zambrano) or be ineffective (Silva, Marshall, Gorzelanny, Samardzija).

The Cubs have struggled mightily in the pen over the last couple of years. Do you think Carlos Marmol is ready for the big time or would you like to see them add another late inning reliever?

I think the Cubs will definitely bring in another reliever to backup Marmol. They have been rumored to have interest in various relievers this offseason, including Matt Capps, Kiko Calero and most recently Chan Ho Park. Whoever the Cubs bring in will probably serve a setup role for the Cubs and fill in at closer should Marmol struggle with his command. However, keep an eye on John Gaub. He dominated in the minors last year for the Cubs and could enter into the closer mix.

Other than pitcher, who is one player that you think is going to surprise us this year?

Starlin Castro has hit everywhere he has played in the last year and could very well win a spot on the opening day roster in 2010. If he does, Ryan Theriot will likely slide over to 2nd and Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot will be relegated to the bench.

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Meet the Brewers

As promised, we will be doing a series of entries where we look at the other teams in our division in more detail. The first comes from my correspondent Adam Burnett and baseballbrew.com. We will do all of the NL Central teams before pitchers and catchers report.

2009 Record: 80-82

Standing: 3rd

Pythagorean: 78-84

Key Aquisitions: Greg Zaun, Carlos Gomez, Doug Davis, Randy Wolf, Latroy Hawkins

Key Losses: Jason Kendall, J.J. Hardy, Mike Cameron, Braden Looper

2009 was a year of transition for the Brewers. Longtime ace Ben Sheets took the year off to heal and C.C. Sabathia chased greener pastures in New York. Still, the offensive duo of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun kept them in the divisional race for much of the season. I caught up with Adam Burnett from my Brewers sister site to get the update on the 2010 Brewers.

Prince Fielder appears to be due a huge payday. Do you see him leaving after the season, being traded in season, or signing longterm?

Meatball fans want the team to trade him now because they believe he’s going to leave anyways. The Brewers have one of the best duo’s in the league with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. The Brewers control him thru 2011, so I think it’s pointless to countdown like fans are doing with LeBron James. You have 2 studs right now, so build around them.

Were you a fan of the JJ Hardy deal and what do you think of his replacement?

Many fans wanted Hardy to go in a deal for a pitcher but a young inconsistent center fielder in Carlos Gomez came in return. If a good pitcher were offered for Hardy I believe the Brewers would have taken it. Center was an area lacking depth in the organization so General Manager Doug Melvin tried to address an area of weakness. Mike Cameron was too expensive and allowed to leave via free agency. Gomez is a young player that has to improve the mental part of the game. Center Fielder Lorzeno Cain broke his leg last year and isn’t a ready for prime time player. Matt LaPorta is the big name from the C.C Sabathia trade with the Indians, however sending Michael Brantley will hurt as well. Brantley played very well for the Tribe filling in for Grady Sizemore. Brantley is a left handed stick with speed that’s projected as the Indians left fielder. Now to shortstop, Alcides Escobar will start and is ready to go as evidenced by a league leading .393 batting average in the Venezuelan league. Escobar is exactly the type of player this Brewers team needs. He’s a gold glove caliber shortstop that should be able to put up better numbers than Elvis Andrus did last season. I hope Manager Ken Macha allows Escobar to use his speed on the base paths.

Corey Hart also has been rumored to be on the move. Do you think they will end up moving him?

Hart had a down year with only 12 homers in 115 games played due to multiple DL stints. His back to back 20-20 seasons is more of a representative of his talents. I think Hart’s a really talented player that has room to grow. I would have dealt him for Edwin Jackson, but he’s not someone that should be run out of town.

Who is one pitcher and hitter you think will surprise NL Central fans?

Manny Parra is tantalizing with his ability to attack hitters. With runners on base the train falls off the track. The mental part of the game is his area of weakness. If new pitching coach Rick Peterson is able to help the southpaw get over his mental hurdles watch out. Rickie Weeks injuries have been well documented, but last season the talent really started to show. If he can play a full season he’ll be one of the top 2nd basemen in all of baseball.

The Brewers have been in the thick of it the past few seasons. Do you think will continue or do think they are retooling?

The Brewers should be going for it this season. Injuries to key players derailed their post season dreams. Money was shifted around to try and fix holes on the roster. Mike Cameron and Jason Kendall were allowed to leave to save money for Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins. Jeff Suppan’s contract has hampered the teams ability be more active in free agency. I would have liked to see the team more active in free agency, but it’s clear this is a team built to win right now.

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Bagwell in the crosshairs

I hate steroids. Yeah, I hate them because of what they have done to the game and all of that business, but I hate them more because of what they do to us, the fans. Here we are less than a month before pitchers and catchers report and we are talking about steroids. I put this off as long as I could, but the folks at Real Sports brought this back into focus. That is their right, but there is something implied that is dangerous and disgusting.

Bryan Gumbel threw out Bagwell’s name as someone that probably used steroids. The implication was two-fold. First, he is asserting that he did not achieve his numbers legitimately. Secondly, he is asserting that those that covered him in Houston (and those that followed him as a fan) turned a blind eye to his useage while carrying pitchforks for the Mark McGwires of the world.

What is the case for Bagwell made on? Is there any hard evidence? Of course not. You wouldn’t expect a responsible journalist like Gumbel to make accusations based on hard evidence would you? Well, we know he has admitted to using Creatine and Andro back in the 1990s. Both of those were legal supplemants back then and Creatine is still a legal supplemant.

So, when we move away from the hard evidence we move towards the evidence that is all too easy. He got bigger. Yes, those that know Bagwell know he was a workout warrior. His numbers jumped from his minor league career to huge numbers as a big leaguer. He wouldn’t be the first to see that happen either. Biggio wasn’t much of a power hitter either when he came up. Finally, you get the association with Ken Camniti (an admitted user when he was still with us) and the precipitious breakdown following the advent of testing in 2001.

This ladies and gentlemen is how good men get destroyed. You throw up a bunch of isolated facts and let the viewing public draw their own conclusions. The fact that there are other plausible explanations for these facts is immaterial. It’s immaterial to those that are invested in tearing down the accomplishments of good people. Unless those 103 names are released from the first round of testing, it is the game we will be playing well into the next decade.

Is it possible that Bagwell could have used steroids or HGH? I suppose it is. However, the facts support him just as much as not. He broke down awfully quickly for someone that used drugs to “stay health” as the other ones did. There are many legal ways to get stronger and people do it everyday in stores like GNC. Unfortunately, this is the collateral damage of the era. When players remain silent about their teammates they sometimes get caught up in all of the mess. People like Bagwell might end up being the Buck Weavers of the steroid era.

When Jeff Bagwell hops on the ballot next year he deserves to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. He is among the top five first basemen of the 20th and 21st centuries. Only Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Frank Thomas have plausible arguments to be ahead of him. Unfortunately, Gumbel’s loose lips and the suspicions of the voters will likely keep him out for now. Is it fair? Only Jeff Bagwell and his closest friends know for sure. For the moment, he’s not saying anything and he shouldn’t have to. He and others like him deserve better than that.

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Astros Handle Arbitration

The Astros had eight arbitration eligible players coming into the off-season (counting the trade for Matt Lindstrom). Five of eight have signed and that was even before they exchanged numbers. That leaves Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, and Humberto Quintero are the only ones left. The biggest margin between the club and player is Wandy Rodriguez’s two million margin.

There is a science to arbitration and I had the privilege of talking to one of the architects for the Astros. Tal Smith’s primary responsibility as the president of the Astros to steer them through the arbitration process. He still has his business, Tal Smith Enterprises, that consults for the Astros and multiple clubs. The Phillies are their primary other client. However, when you look at the Astros, they are one of the best clubs at handling arbitration.

Bill Gilbert is the head of the Rogers Hornsby chapter of SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) in Austin and San Antonio. He is one of Smith’s chief lieutenants and we got to chat at their winter meetings. Naturally, trade secrets don’t get revealed, but it isn’t difficult to see what his job is. All you have to do is study the way the process works.

When a player and his representation get ready to propose their number, they try to find players that are similar at the same point in their career and compare contract numbers (with some inflation thrown in). So, a good organization will have someone that can crunch numbers to find out who they will try to compare themselves with. The Astros seem to be better at that than most organizations.

Now, let’s consider Tim Lincecum for a moment, the Giants and Lincecum are nearly six million apart. Luckily, the Astros don’t have anyone like Lincecum in terms of demands. Still, they haven’t lost an arbitration case as long as Smith has been president. Since we have spent so much time bashing the Astros for their moves we must spend time praising them when they do something right. They are in line to come in around a 95 million dollar payroll (cutting between 10 and 15 million) from last year’s payroll. They are likely done.

Coming Up

I am proud to announce that my fellow NL Central bloggers at Fanball have agreed to exchange questions so we can learn more about each other’s teams. I will post a series of “Meet the ….” as they come in. I have already gotten answers from the Brewers and will post that later as the rest come in. We also will be doing a joint piece on our predictions for the central.

I also will do my final off-season grades on the Astros when pitchers and catchers report. With the way the last couple of off-seasons have gone, we want to make sure that there are no last second moves that will impact the grades. Of course, if anything comes along I will look at it as well.

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Best News of the Off-season

Imagine my surprise when I was thumbing through the twitter feeds on Saturday and stumbled onto a bit of information. It seems that the Astros have spent 16.5 million dollars in bonuses for amateur players since 2006. While that might seem like a lot we should remember that the Nats spent more than that on the first round picks this season. The total for the Astros was by far the lowest total spent since that time in the big leagues.

It’s hard to explain, but while a big league club can be very good without spending a lot money, the same is not true of building a good minor league system. Whether you are signing guys from overseas or drafting guys in the amateur draft, you can’t operate a farm system on the cheap. The Astros have done it for awhile now and they have the 30th rated farm system in baseball.

The recent news about Jose Valverde’s signing in Detroit cannot be taken lightly. According to arbitration rules, if a Type A free agent signs with a team picking after the 15th pick in the first round the team gets that pick and a sandwich pick between the first and second round. So, the Astros will have the 8th pick, 19th pick, and 34th pick in the draft. That won’t restock the entire farm system will go a long way.

When you look at how championship teams are built you start with what comes from the inside. Even if you take the New York Yankees you see a team that developed Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera. The Red Sox stand second in money spent, but they still have Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and a load of young pitchers.

The Astros used to be one of those teams. They still have Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. Hunter Pence and Wandy Rodriguez have been promising as well, but the well is dry until Jason Castro is ready for prime time. It is this gap that has sent the Astros into a tailspin since 2006. We now know that 2008 was the aberration. Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio went on their way. It is the natural order of events. There also has to be another star to replace the old ones. The Astros need to find that star.

Teams can throw money away on amateur talent just like they can at the big league level. However, spending more money on the farm system in general will help. More than the amateur draft, increasing the efforts in the Caribbean, Asia, and South America. You never know where that next star may come from. One thing is for sure, you aren’t going to find that star scrimping pennies and nickels.

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Where there is smoke…..

This is the second time a story like this has broke. I’m not sure if this going to go through or not, but apparently Drayton McLane has agreed to sell the team. Bob Allen is reporting on Channel 13 in Houston that McLane has agreed in principle to sell the team to a group of investors for as much as 700 million.

We don’t know anything about the potential buyers, so we don’t know if this is good news or not. However, it would be good to talk about how long the process will take, what it could mean for fans, and what it could mean for the team. Afterall, buying a baseball team isn’t exactly like buying a car.

If we assume a deal has already been struck between the two parties, the contracts have to be drawn up. Think of when you bought your house (if you have one). You not only have the price to contend with, but you have the condition of the home as well. Maybe the carpet needs to be changed out. Maybe other alterations need to be made. That’s a home. Closing on a home takes up to a few months depending on the situation.

In baseball terms, you have operating costs. Some new owners want their own people in place. This can include players. The San Diego Padres sold off a lot of pieces last year for an impending sale. More could be on the way. The Dodgers are also beginning the same process. They haven’t done anything of note this off-season. Since we don’t know the potential new owners we also don’t know whether they would want players to be dealt.

After all of those items have been agreed to, then the owners must approve the sale. Think of buying a team like joining a country club. Some country clubs will take you even if you are strip club owners. Others will only take the social elite. MLB owners tend to be in the second category. So, they will wait until they have an owners meeting to approve the sale. That would probably be closer to the end of the 2010 season even if a firm deal is reached by the beginning of the season.

Drayton McLane is one of the richest men in America. There is very little chance the Astros will become one of the elite spenders in the sport with new ownership. The biggest change will likely come in how the team is run. Tal Smith and Ed Wade better start dusting off their resumes. If the team is a losing team again in 2010, the new owners maybe want to start over.

This is where I start to get excited as a fan. The Astros are one of the only organizations not to allow fans to bring in food or beverages (even water). The Astros are one of the last organizations to jump on the bandwagon of using new statistical research. They still believe in going by the gut while other organizations are beginning to pass them by. Of course, this is conjecture. However, those of us that have been frustrated by McLane’s “are you going to be champion?” schtick. Stay tuned Astros fans.

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A look at the rotation

Yesterday, we looked at the possibility of Brett Myers joining the Astros rotation. Well, the wheels of justice move quickly. As I was writing the article, Myers agreed to a one year deal ($5 million) with an option for 2011. It wasn’t immediately clear as to whether anyone else was offering Myers a deal. No one seemed to be. Sometimes I wonder if Ed Wade does his bargain shopping at a Nieman Marcus sale, but that is neither he nor there. It isn’t mine or even his money.

As we saw yesterday, his numbers have been in a steady decline since 2005. However, five million is about the price you would pay for a pitcher that can give you 180 innings these days. Jon Garland is the same kind of pitcher and he got a similar deal from the Rangers. We will leave that aside, because most of what was said was said yesterday. What we’re going to do is play a little game. We will remove names, wins, losses, and ERA. We will look only at peripheral numbers to see who should be the five man rotation.

. . . . . . . . . . .FIP. . .DER. . .K/G. . .BB/G. . .HR/G

Pitcher A. . . ..3.75. …702. . .7.0. . ..2.1. . ..0.97

Pitcher B. . . ..3.52. …698. . .8.7. . ..2.9. . ..0.95

Pitcher C. . . ..4.77. . .684. . .8.3. . ..3.9. . ..1.39

Pitcher D. . . ..6.15. . .732. . .6.3. . ..2.9. . ..2.28

Pitcher E. . . ..5.11. . .639. . .8.0. . ..3.2. . ..1.72

Pitcher F. . . ..4.57. . .685. . .5.0. . ..2.8. . ..1.16

Pitcher G. . . ..5.06. . .688. . .4.2. . ..5.5. . ..0.50

Okay, a couple of disclaimers. Some of these pitchers (notably Bazardo and Myers) had limited innings. Also, these are not necessarily a perfect predictor of future performance. Nothing is. The Astros will tell you that Myers was hurt last year and that is why his numbers were bad. Those that read this yesterday know which numbers belong to Myers. However, before I dive into that, I want to explain what the numbers mean.

FIP stands for “fielding independent pitching.” Essentially, it shows what a pitcher’s ERA would be with an average defense behind him. DER is virtually the same thing in reverse. It stands for “defensive efficiency rating.” It calculates the percentage of balls in play the defense makes behind a pitcher. The higher the percentage, the luckier a pitcher was in terms of defense. This is extremely important because it can help us predict which pitchers will rebound and which ones will regress.

If you haven’t guessed, the pitchers listed in order are: Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris, Brett Myers, Felipe Paulino, Brian Moehler, and Yorman Bazardo. When you look at the numbers there is one pitcher that clearly doesn’t belong and that pitcher is Brett Myers. So, why is he here? He is here because the Astros are organization that believes in the human factor and not the analytical factor. Ed Wade knows Brett Myers and therefore he believes in his ability to bounce back.

He had hip surgery last year, so there is reason to believe he will be better. However, he is leaving a team that had excellent defenders throughout the infield and outfield. The Astros were the worst team in the NL in team DER. A pitcher that was relatively lucky for a good defensive team is going to a team that was lousy defensively. We’ve talked before about the improvement we expect defensively, but this still doesn’t bode well.

As for the others, you can throw a blanket over Bud Norris, Brian Moehler, Felipe Paulino, and Yorman Bazardo. If you want to pick a couple out of the group you would likely pick those that you expect to improve. That wouldn’t be Brian Moehler. Yorman Bazardo also appears to be a long shot at this point. Competition is a good thing and that is the biggest positive of this signing. We just have to have the faith that they will pick the right guys.

As for Brett Myers, you have to consider simultaneously his place in the market and his potential place on the team. Is five million too much for him? Only the Astros and other teams know how much he was in demand. All I know is that he hasn’t been connected with teams for at least a month. I guess negotiations could continue in secret, but that seems unlikely in this day and age. So, you pay someone five million that isn’t likely to be better than the marginal starting pitcher you are giving two million to. One man’s garbage is another’s man’s treasure.

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