Buy or Sell?

For those of you that watch ESPN regularly, you know this is a segment on Around the Horn. For the Astros it seems to be a regular dilemma with most Astros fans sitting on one side of the equation and ownership sitting on the other side. Since 2005 (when the Astros miraculously won the pennant) the club has been on a collision course with the next generation. First it was Craig Biggio and then it was Brad Ausmus. Those guys moved on and forced the club to go in another direction. Naturally, the direction they chose was to bring in more veterans. The situation is coming to the apex now that the club is in last place looking up at everyone in the National League except for the Diamondbacks (who have already fired their manager) and the Nationals (who are probably keeping their manager on to punish him).

Ah, the Astros are only 4.5 games out of the wild card. This is where the temptation comes into play. We’ve made runs through this many teams before. Management can easily talk themselves into believing they are a pitcher away from making that leap. After all, if you put another solid veteran along with Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez then you have yourself the makings of a pretty good playoff rotation. Add that to the makings of a pretty solid pen and you are ready to make a run right? Well, sort of.

I’m not saying another starter wouldn’t help the cause, but you still have to ask who’s going to close out the rotation. Russ Ortiz certainly looked pretty good in his return to the rotation, but can he really be counted on to be a fourth starter the rest of the way? Mike Hampton has been a decent fifth starter, but his record and numbers hide the fact that he has feasted on the Pirates and really no one else. So, this brings us back to the original question. Do we have enough to make a run or are we better off surrendering?

The question is difficult to answer at this point. Offensively, it appears as if all of the necessary pieces are playing as good as they could be expected to. People will look at Lance Berkman’s numbers overall, but since April he has been performing like the Berkman of old. Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, and Miguel Tejada are all making their own bids to be all-star reserves this season. Meanwhile, Michael Bourn isn’t making anyone forget Cesar Cedeno, but he is actually doing more than Wily Taveras did in his stay with the Astros. So, can you explain the club’s 14th position in the National League in runs scored? Could acquiring a third baseman with some sock change that? Perhaps. Yet, looking at the farm system dictates that the club really can’t afford to give up enough prospects to bring in both a pitcher and a third baseman.

So, let’s say the Astros go the other route. What kind of fire sale are we talking about? Well, we could go with the “expiring contract” plan. Essentially, that means trading any veteran that has an expiring contract. That would include Miguel Tejada, Pudge Rodriguez, Jose Valverde, and Latroy Hawkins. Those four players alone could bring in anywhere between six and eight prospects that could either fill in the gaps in AA and AAA or provide the big league roster with much needed youth. If you want to go into “total recall” you could start fielding offers for Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman. Both have said they would accept a trade in limited circumstances. If you add them into the equation you are talking about a dozen prospects or more. Suddenly, the club goes from having the worst farm system in baseball to one of the best in one year.

Those that aren’t selling types wonder about the Astros turning into the Royals, Pirates, or Nationals. The Pirates recently traded one of their “building blocks” for three prospects. What the pundits aren’t telling you is that Nate McLouth is not a superstar. When you are a mid market club you either win by developing your own superstars or by putting enough good (but not great) players together to compete. The Astros did that when they paired Biggio and Bagwell with enough complementary players. Having Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte give the hometown team a discount didn’t hurt either.

The difference between the Pirates and say the Marlins (who have successfully rebuilt many times) is that the Pirates have never had a player on the level of Hanley Ramirez. In fact, no one has even been on the level of Dan Uggla. If you can fool the Braves into thinking that McLouth is one of those players then all the better. So, the Pirates have been gliding by on solid but not good players for years now. When you have a below average pitching staff, six or seven solid hitters and not much else you are looking at a last place finish. What’s the difference between them and the Astros? Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, and Roy Oswalt.

If you can get a number of prospects for guys who are on the backside of stardom you could possibly avoid the kind of long-term losing streak those teams have had. They didn’t get that way by trading away decent players for a number of prospects. They got that way because their superstars (Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla in the case of the Pirates) left without any compensation. Food for thought. As always, I want to hear your thoughts.