The State of the Franchise

I’ve always hated it when pundits say this is the most important off-season the club has had. Really? Didn’t you say that last off-season? Well, in the Astros case it is the truth and it will be again next off-season if the club avoids decisions that need to be made. Simply put, the club has too much money concentrated into three players. Moreover, those three players are all past their prime.

So, the Astros have the decision of whether to break up those three guys and start preparing for the future or to try to patch a roster around them with fewer resources than they have had before. The Astros attendance dipped from the 3 million territory to around 2.3 million in 2009. Couple that with bad economy that might hit Houston eventually and a fan base that doesn’t think the club is going anywhere and you see Drayton McLane’s dilemma.

Do you continue to sink 110 million into a payroll for a roster that likely isn’t good enough to beat the Cardinals or Cubs? Do you scale that payroll back to about 90 million to cover your reduced attendance and interest in the team? It’s rather simplistic to suggest he could just spend the money from Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and Doug Brocail’s contracts on better players. Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn are due significant raises. When you consider departing contracts like Mike Hampton and Ivan Rodriguez there is a little more to play with, but not much.

I do feel for McLane in the sense that he is in a no win scenario. If he keeps the payroll the same he risks losing money on a team that still won’t be good enough. If he cuts payroll, the team certainly won’t be better and the fans will likely criticize him. However, this is a problem of his own creating. First, he hasn’t let the baseball people run the business. Secondly, he hasn’t applied those ample resources in the right places. Now, he has three aging veterans slated to earn roughly half of his expected payroll.

Essentially, the club is at a fork in the road. They can either try to add one more significant free agent and hope the Big Three have better seasons or they can trade one or two of the Big Three and begin the process of building the next group of Houston Astros. Carlos Lee is stuck here another season, but both Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman have said they would accept a trade under the right circumstances. Trading one or both would create payroll flexibility and bring in some good young players to a roster that desperately needs them.

In the late 1990s, the Seattle Mariners had three of the best players of our generation. Edgar Martinez was also not what you would call a slouch. If this is any justice he will join those three in the Hall of Fame. Between 1998 and 2000, the Mariners either traded those big three or allowed them to leave via free agency. Where did it get them? It got them 114 wins in 2001. Why? Simply put, they took those resources and spread them out. They understood that you don’t win with four Hall of Famers. You win with a roster full of good players.

So, while we could focus on all of the little decisions the Astros must make on individual players, the big picture is so much more important. If they don’t pull the trigger this off-season, the question will loom even bigger in 2010. It really is the right thing to do. They have enough money for one magic bullet, but they need three or four magic bullets. Do you spend it on a starting pitcher? Closer? Third Baseman? Shortstop?

I think we know which direction this club is likely to go. Drayton McLane said he would look into why this club underachieved with its payroll. Yet, he isn’t willing to rebuild. I’m not sure there is anyone over there on Crawford Street willing to tell him he needs to do so. So, he will convince himself that guys like Tejada, Hampton, and Valverde were bad investments when that misses the whole point. They are all bad investments. You add veterans like those guys to teams that need one veteran to push them over the top. When you are half way there, adding one of those guys is like putting a swanky new car stereo in a clunker. Sure, the tunes sound great, but can you start the car?

Predictably, McLane will convince himself that this is a championship level team that simply needs the right addition. It’s a fool’s errand, but we’ll look along with him. We’ll take a look at the market and what the Astros have moving forward at each position in more detail. Maybe we can find that magic bullet for him.