Magic Bullet Series: Starting Pitchers
November 2nd, 2009 | by scottbarzilla |I am calling this the magic bullet series because I foresee the Astros having enough money for one significant free agent. When I say significant I am expecting that to be anywhere between the 8-12 million per year category. I don’t think McLane is going to spend anymore than that and there is always the possibility that Ed Wade will choose to bring in multiple players for that sum.
So, as we move towards the beginning of the free agency period we will look at four key positions: starting pitchers, closers, shortstops, and third basemen. Starting pitchers come in three different categories. There are guys that are top of the rotation starters. I hate the term ace. What exactly is an ace or a number two pitcher for that matter? For our purposes, a top of the rotation starter will be a guy you would throw into a playoff rotation without a second thought. There are a few available this off-season.
None of these guys are the sexy “aces” that have been available in the past, but all of them would immediately challenge for the second slot in the Astros rotation. Out of the group, Rich Harden has the best stuff, but he also struggles to be healthy. We all know what Andy Pettitte can do and at this point he might be the safest bet because he will only play year to year at this point. In terms of long-term propositions, John Lackey is your best bet with Joel Pineiro and Jarrod Washburn likely being overpriced.
Overall, I would say the chances of us getting someone from that group is slim and none. Andy Pettitte would pique Drayton McLane’s interest, but there is still bad blood between them. Pettitte might choose to play back home after winning a ring this year (they are one win away as we speak). Of course, that might spur him to retire or play another year with the Yankees. You never know with Pettitte these days. John Lackey is the best long-term investment in the group, but since he doesn’t have Texas ties, that makes him a long-shot.
The next group is a little bigger and what we might call the guys that will go every fifth day, but would likely be holdovers in the playoffs. They are solid fourth or fifth starters. The problem these days is that they come at a premium. Finding someone that can throw between 160 and 180 decent innings cost a lot more than you think it would.
This list is a smorgasbord of pitchers in a variety of circumstances. Some are potential top of the rotation starters that seem to struggle with health issues (Escobar, Duchscherer, Bedard) while others are guys that had career seasons that will fall back to the pack (Pavano, Wellemeyer, Marquis). Then, you have the rest. We all know Braden Looper, Jon Garland, and Doug Davis.
Knowing the Astros, they will sign one of those three guys and declare it a front of the rotation signing. I like those guys (particularly Davis who came back from cancer), but they aren’t top of the rotation starters and haven’t been for some time. Still, they all will eat innings and that is about as important. The other guys would normally be good risk/reward kind of signings but even those guys are going for big money these days. I’m not giving a huge pay check to Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, or Kelvim Escobar with their injury backgrounds.
The last category is one we all know too well. We can call it the Russ Ortiz category. These are guys that will sign minimal guaranteed contracts or will be non-roster invitees. Normally, I don’t mind these because there is very little risk involved. The only thing you have to keep in mind is that you can’t afford to hang on to them too long with they go south.
- Sidney Ponson
- Jason Schmidt
There are old veterans here that are looking to hang on for one more season. John Smoltz showed some flashes at the end of the season and could get a contract if he wants one. Livan Hernandez has been hanging around with little stuff. Then you have your guys that used to be up and coming pitchers, but went awry along the way. Guys like Rich Hill, Bartolo Colon, and Adam Eaton have disappeared for one reason or another. All three pitched some last year, but with little success. Finally, you have the guys fighting the injury bug. Anyone could be a decent flyer in March.
So, there you go. I left some names out because they just didn’t seem that plausible, but that’s what most teams are looking back this off-season. Guys like Ben Sheets didn’t make the list, but he is out there as well. It will be an interesting off-season on the starting pitcher front.
