Magic Bullet Series: Closers
November 4th, 2009 | by scottbarzilla |Jose Valverde is moving towards free agency, so there is an official opening in the closer position. Obviously, there are a number of different directions the Astros can go. The first two come from within the current roster. Valverde can return if the team wishes to offer him arbitration (and he accepts) or if they offer a long-term contract. The Astros can also give the job to Latroy Hawkins, but he also is a free agent.
About a week ago, I looked at the wisdom of paying a closer ten million or more a season. Jose Valverde is headed into that territory following a second consecutive good season as a closer. He had some injury concerns this year, but most people attribute that to Cecil Cooper horribly mismanaging him early in the season. After he returned from the injury, he was as good as he has always been. In arbitration or free agency, he will get at least ten million a season.
Currently, there are about a half-dozen closers in the game making ten million or more. Mariano Rivera is getting the most, but he also has the best numbers to work with. Brad Lidge and Kerry Wood got new contracts coming into this season and neither came close to earning them. Valverde probably falls somewhere in between with Francisco Cordero and Francisco Rodriguez. Below is a look at their save percentages since Valverde moved to Houston.
- . . . . . . . . . . .SV. . .OPP. . .PCT
- Rivera. . . . . . .83. . …86. . ..965
- Lidge.. . . . . . .72. . . .83. . ..867
- Wood. . . . . . ..54. . …66. . ..818
- Cordero.. . . . ..73. . . .83. . ..880
- Rodriguez.. . . ..97. . .111. . ..874
- Valverde. . . . ..69. . . .80. . ..863
- Fuentes. . . . . .78. . . .89. . ..876
- Nathan. . . . . ..86. . . .97. . ..887
Everyone but Jose Valverde and Brian Fuentes made more than ten million during 2009. Obviously, when you filter out Mariano Rivera on top and Kerry Wood on bottom you see you that could literally throw a blanket over those save percentages. So, Valverde is very justified in asking for an average of what those closers make. The Astros have a long history of not paying closers once they get to their big pay day.
If the Astros want to sign a different credentialed closer there aren’t that many to choose from. Latroy Hawkins doesn’t really qualify. While he did a good job to get those eleven saves last season, he has had closer’s jobs before in other spots and failed. Who knows, maybe he can overcome that now, but we will consider him as a solid Plan B. If the Astros don’t want to pay Valverde, but want someone other than Hawkins to close, here are there options for credentialed closers.
- Bobby Howry
There were a few others on the list that had been closers, but they weren’t serious considerations for that role. The top four guys all failed in their turns as closers, but could be very good setup guys. Rodney is the most ready to close considering he closed out nearly 40 games for the Tigers this season. Soriano might be the most intriguing for a team like the Astros, but the favorite of that group will likely be Wagner.
Wagner fits the mold of the typical Drayton McLane type signing. He is a familiar face that will create some buzz. He’s old and coming off an injury as well. However, he is chasing the record for saves by a left-handed pitcher. The marketing possibilities are numerous. Of course, it wouldn’t make the Astros any better, but that hasn’t been a major consideration for some time now. It’s all about looking like you are getting better.
Another possibility the Astros have is re-signing Latroy Hawkins and one of the top four relievers to form a two-headed monster. The idea is that one of them would step up and do a decent job. However, the Astros could re-sign Hawkins and then bring in someone to bolster the 7th and 8th innings. There are a few more names that match that criteria.
- Kiki Calero
- Scott Eyre
- Darren Oliver
The irony is that the bullpen is the area that needs the least amount of attention, but it will likely be the area that gets the most attention. Ed Wade’s hallmark is getting a truckload of relievers to help get the team through the year. It has worked well for the Astros the last couple of seasons in terms of bullpen performance. It also might have been a drain on resources for other areas of the club. One thing is for certain, there will be some new faces there next year.
