Magic Bullet Series: Shortstops

In our final edition of the Magic Bullet Series we take a look at the shortstops. Shortstop might be the most certain of the positions for the Astros in 2010 in that we know it won’t be Miguel Tejada. Yes, Tejada may still be a part of the future, but it won’t be as a shortstop. While I’m at it, let me go on a little editorial tirade if I may.

John Dewan wrote his first Fielding Bible a few seasons back and actually wrote his introductory essay comparing Adam Everett and Derek Jeter. One was the best defensive shortstop in baseball and one was the worst. Since we are also talking about Miguel Tejada, allow me to look at the short list of shortstops to play the last three seasons as regulars.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Dewan

Jack Wilson. . . . . . . . . . .+58

Marco Scutaro. . . . . . . . .+29

Cesar Izturis. . . . . . . . . ..+33

Troy Tulowitzki.. . . . . . . .+50

Jason Bartlett. . . . . . . . ..+27

Jimmy Rollins. . . . . . . . . ..+27

JJ Hardy. . . . . . . . . . . . ..+30

Adam Everett.. . . . . . . . ..+26

Hanley Ramirez. . . . . . . . .-29

Miguel Tejada. . . . . . . . …-18

Edgar Renteria. . . . . . . . ..-20

Derek Jeter. . . . . . . . . . ..-40

Orlando Cabrera. . . . . . . ..-36

Which of of these groups has the most Gold Gloves? Well, Derek Jeter has more than the top group by himself. He did have a decent season this year, but it was not worthy of a Gold Glove. Tejada is the least objectionable, but there was a decent 2008 season in there. The players in bold font will be free agents in the coming season. Obviously, you have some idea of what the Astros might look at when they compare free agents to their current choice (Tommy Manzella).

The Astros know they will have a better than average shortstop with the glove next year if they go with Manzella. The problem is that they won’t have much of a hitter. In the last three minor league seasons he has posted OPS totals of .663, .679, and .756. Call it a hunch, but I don’t think he will be much of a hitter. Even if you take the aggregate of those three seasons, you are still looking at a .700 OPS in the minors. That might translate to a .650 OPS or lower in the big leagues.

Marco Scutaro might be a higher priced guy then we think. He’s put up a collective OPS around .730 over the past three years. That’s pretty good, but not worthy of the money he will likely get. Jack Wilson is the gold standard of defensive shortstops, but he put up a collective .700 OPS. Adam Everett rings in the .600ish OPS over the past three seasons. We have to hope Manzella will be better than that.

Unfortunately, if Manzella is going to be that bad then the Astros are in serious trouble offensively. They will suffer at the catching position and likely the third base and second base positions. Even if they keep Tejada (or get one of the other third base guys) they will end up with three holes in the lineup. This is where the debate about offensive distribution comes in.

The Astros can roll the dice and go with what they have in the field. It will be cheaper (allowing them to spend more on pitching) and better defensively. If they choose to get a position player, they can get a good offensive player at third base and suffer at the shortstop position or they can get a passable shortstop and be passable at third base as well. It’s a rough call. Simply put, guys like Orlando Cabrera and Alex Gonzalez would be a step in the wrong direction. They would be worse than Tejada and would cost about as much as he will eventually cost. Your choice is a significant defensive upgrade in free agency or Manzella. If you choose Manzella you may get a horrible bat, but he will be cheap. If you choose the free agent you will pay for good defense and passable offense.