Gold Glove Analysis

We all want to congratulate Michael Bourn for winning the Gold Glove award. However, the state of the Gold Glove awards in the statistical community is somewhere between skeptical and an absolute joke. However, I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt and go through some rudimentary analysis.

As many of you know, the Gold Gloves are the only major awards not voted on by the baseball beatwriters. That’s probably the first problem. The coaches and managers vote on these awards. Some of these players they see in person only nine times and it is clear by their decisions that have ignored the statistical advancements in fielding analysis. Fielding percentage is the statistical equivalent of a 286 processor. Just consider the following: Michael Bourn is the first Astro outfielder to win the award in 30 years. Doesn’t it seem outrageous for 90 outfielders to collectively go 0 for 90?

When we move away from fielding percentage we have a number of different ways we can go. We will use three systems. We will use The Hardball times readjusted zone rating, outs outside of zone, and John Dewan’s fielding bible. If someone wants to come in and say another sabermetric system is better I’m okay with that. These are not necessarily the last word. However, everyone must agree it is better than a simple tally of errors committed.

When you have a fielder that makes 500 plays a year, the difference in number of plays made is more important than the number of plays a player committed an error on. This is simple logic. These statistical systems focus on the number of plays a player should make. They arrive at it in different ways and that is why there is a difference. If the pick is defensible then Bourn will be tops in at least one of those systems.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .RZR. . . .OOZ. . . .Dewan

Mike Cameron. . . . . . .960. . . . .67. . . . . .+5

Kosuke Fukodome. . . ..953. . . . .45. . . .. .-15

Colby Rasmus. . . . . . .949. . . . .52. . . .. . .-4

Michael Bourn. . . . . . .949. . . .113. . . .. . .+9

Chris Young. . . . . . . ..948. . . . .66. . . . ..+10

Shane Victorino. . . . . .942. . . . .63. . . ….-24

Aaron Rowand. . . . . . .932. . . . .78. . . .. ..+8

Dexter Fowler. . . . . . .921. . . . ..62. . . ….-25

Matt Kemp. . . . . . . . .899. . . . ..82. . . .. .-14

Andrew McClutchen. . .884. . . . ..72. . . . ..-17

For the most part, the two major systems agree. Four out of the five bottom centerfielders in the Hardball Times also had negative ratings according to John Dewan. So, we can be fairly confident that the combination gives us a good idea. Bourn finished in a tie for third in RZR, first in outs outside of zone, and second in the Dewan system. He may not be the best centerfielder in the league, but he’s darn close.

The same can’t be said for Matt Kemp and Shane Victorino. Both of them were in the bottom half and still pulled away the award. Mike Cameron got jobbed again, but he’s probably used to that. He’s been either the best or second best centerfielder in the league for the past decade with little to show for it. We can combine the two THT statistics to form one composite statistic. It isn’t perfect, but it can reconcile the standard zone rating with outs outside of the zone.

. . . . . . . . . . .Plays+OOZ. . .BIZ+OOZ. . .BZR

Cameron. . . . . . ..404. . . . . . .418. . . . .967

Fukodome. . . . . ..226. . . . . . .235. . . . .962

Rasmus. . . . . . . ..258. . . . . . .269. . . . .959

Bourn. . . . . . . . ..371. . . . . . .385. . . . .964

Young. . . . . . . . .287. . . . . . .299. . . . .960

Victorino. . . . . . ..337. . . . . . .354. . . . .952

Rowand. . . . . . . ..299. . . . . ..315. . . . .949

Fowler. . . . . . . . .248. . . . . . .264. . . . .939

Kemp. . . . . . . . . .367. . . . . . .399. . . . .920

McCutchen. . . . . .263. . . . . . .288. . . . .913

For those keeping track, BZR stands for Barzilla zone rating. It simply combines RZR and OOZ into a zone rating metric. Again, Mike Cameron comes out on top. We hope he will settle for the Sabermetric gold glove award. Really, we want to apologize on behalf of the coaches. This analysis took less than an hour. It took me less time to figure out that Matt Kemp was a horrible choice and Shane Victorino was merely bad. Michael Bourn by comparison is a pretty good choice as the second best centerfielder in the NL.

Since Gold Glove voters decided to vote for three centerfielders as Gold Gloves we have to say he was a good selection. Then again, I’m not sure about the wisdom of not picking the best left fielder and right fielder, but that’s a different discussion for a different day. So many Astros have been jobbed for Gold Gloves that being the second best at a position is not a major deal. Adam Everett got robbed in just about every season he played for us. So, look at the Gold Gloves the same way you might look at a movie review from the Edna Herald. After all, how many movies make it to their theatre?