The Trade Market: Hunter Pence

November 14th, 2009 | by scottbarzilla |

We took a look at the Magic Bullet Series for free agency. One of the Astros potential targets inked a two year contract with the Mariners. Jack Wilson is not available and the prospects of signing any significant free agent diminished when Hunter Pence officially garnered status as a super two. In other words, he is one of the 17 percent of players with between two and three years service time that was granted arbitration rights.

When you look at the Astros, they have two position players and two pitchers they could potentially have on the trade market. So, we will look at how valuable they are to the Astros and how valuable they might be in the trade market. Hunter Pence in particular is a difficult case because the Astros must decide whether to offer arbitration, put on the trade market, or give a long-term contract to.

Most fans are savvy to OPS and it does explain 90 percent of what happens offensively. It doesn’t explain fielding or base running. So, I simply added them into an adjusted OPS using Bill James’ base running analysis (+/- system on Billjamesonline.com) and John Dewan’s Fielding Bible. When you make more plays than the average fielder you are effectively taking away baserunners. So, for each play made above average, I add one to the total times on base (for the OBP formula). When you take more bases than average you are effectively adding in the same way to your slugging percentage. Below is look at right fielders with at least 500 plate appearances in 2009.

More important than where Hunter Pence ranks in the group is the separation of the data we see. We can divide these players into three different categories. We have six players with an adjusted OPS above 900. We have six more with an adjusted OPS above 800. The other eight are below that mark. Even though Pence falls on the bottom of the second group, that isn’t too much a cause for alarm.

Pence will turn 27 next season and players usually have their best season when they turn 27. It will also be his fourth full season and players usually are at their best then too. So, the conditions are ripe for a career season. Naturally, when you look at his progression, you don’t see the same kind of jump as we saw last season.

However, with a change in managers we may see a big swing in the -15 rating Pence put on the basepaths. If this happens then Pence will be moving from the bottom of the middle tier to the top of the middle tier. There is certainly nothing wrong with that. Still, a big part of this exercise is realizing who Hunter Pence is and who he is not. He is not an elite right fielder.

Only one National League right fielder had a better Dewan rating than Pence did last season and Pence played more games. If both leagues would adopt positional integrity in their Gold Glove award voting then he might have been the best selection in the National League. Unfortunately, he is not the hitter that some of the other right fielders in the league.

So, the question comes down to trade him, offer arbitration, or sign long-term. The first decision should be easy. You don’t give guys like Pence a long-term deal. If he moves up to the top of the middle tier you may consider it if it is reasonable, but at this point, there are more right fielders better than Pence than there are worse than Pence. That’s not the kind of person that should get a long-term contract. That being said, I wouldn’t trade him. The odds are too good that he will become a better right fielder next season.

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Scott Barzilla is a school counselor from Houston, TX. He is the author of Checks and Imbalances, The State of Baseball Management, and Combating Ignorance: Inside and Outside the Classroom. All three books can be found on Amazon.com and Barnesandnoble.com. He is also a regular contributor at Astrosdaily.com