The Trade Market: Lance Berkman

Branch Rickey always said it was better to deal a guy a year too early than a year too late. Of course, he said that in response to trading Ralph Kiner. Ultimately, Rickey ended up being right about Kiner and the deal began the process of building the team that won the 1960 World Series championship. The Astros face the same decision when it comes to the likes of Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt.

Rickey also was quoted as saying the Pirates would finish last with or without Ralph Kiner. The Astros aren’t going to finish last in the Central (because of the Pirates thus proving that history is cyclical). However, they will be closer to last than they are to first. While it won’t be Lance Berkman’s fault, his 14 million dollar price tag makes it difficult to add talent.

If you go back over the past three seasons, there have been seven first basemen with an OPS of .900 or better. That would be eight if you counted Derrek Lee’s .899. Lance Berkman is in the middle of that group. He is legitimately one of the top five first basemen in the game. The trouble is that there are fourteen that have an OPS of .799 or better. So, first base is not exactly a position of need for most people.

There are two golden rules of payrolls. First, you pay a premium on skills that are rare. There aren’t too many people that can consistently produce an OPS above .900 (he even had a .907 OPS last year in a “down” year). However, that isn’t all that rare among first basemen. Secondly, you pay a premium for what you do not have. First basemen just aren’t that difficult to come by.

Make no mistake, Lance Berkman is a great player. He isn’t a good one, he’s a great one. Berkman’s career OPS (.967) is higher than Jeff Bagwell’s career OPS. Sure, Bagwell played most of his career in the Astrodome, but this goes to show that he is a lot better than what we give him credit for. His career OPS stands in 16th place among players with 4000 or more plate appearances. Still, he will be 34 in 2010, so he is a lot closer to the end than he is the beginning.

When looking for a possible trading partner, the Astros have three hurdles they must clear. First, they need to find someone that needs a first baseman. Thirteen teams had first basemen that had 100 or more runs created last season. Five more had 90 or more. So, we could say that only a handful of teams could really use a good first basemen. After we pass that hurdle we have to find a team that can afford his salary. So, the list of teams that could use a first basemen include the Mariners, Blue Jays, Mets, Rangers, Orioles, and Giants. That list could be whittled down when we cut out the Blue Jays and Orioles because of cost considerations.

The third test is finding a team that Berkman would accept a trade to. He has said he wants to stay in the southern part of the United States. That includes the Rangers and maybe the Giants. Now, you can see what kind of situation the club is in. Still, both have talent that could make the Astros perk up a little. The Rangers have Elvis Andrus that could start at shortstop for the Astros and Chris Davis who could play first in Berkman’s absence. The Giants have Jonathan Sanchez that would immediately become our number three starter.

It pains me to even mention Lance Berkman as a possible trade target. He combines the skills a sabermetrician loves. He hits with power and has great patience at the plate. He runs the bases well even if he isn’t fast. He fields his position well even though he doesn’t get credit for it. Still, if you are an Astros fan you must entertain everything that would make your team better and dealing him might help make the club younger and take some of the salary burden away.