The Trade Market: Roy Oswalt

I remember it like it was yesterday. Larry Dierker used to write a regular column for the Chronicle before he became the manager. The article he wrote late in the 1990 season burns in my memory. He was extolling the virtues of Larry Andersen and his lengthy career with the Houston Astros. Surely, there hasn’t been a better setup man/middle reliever in Astros history.

Andersen was a huge part of the 1986 NLCS team and he performed well until his trade to Boston in 1990. One line sticks out from that article, “welcome to Houston Jeff Bagwell, go get em’”. The rest of the article was an expression of sadness for Andersen having to leave. It was an eerily similar time. Former stalwarts like Glenn Davis, Bill Doran, and Mike Scott were getting older. It was time for another generation of guys to take over.

Surely, deals like that don’t come around very often. The equivalent today would be trading Latroy Hawkins for a future Hall of Famer. Hawkins is a great guy, but I would do it in a heart beat. Normal trades involve a lot more pain. Last time we looked at Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt holds a similar place in Astros lore. Both will join the other retired jerseys when they are done. Still, the impressive period of playoff and near playoff baseball has come to an end.

Oswalt has been the best starting pitcher in Astros history. Others will point to J.R. Richard, Joe Niekro, Larry Dierker, or Nolan Ryan, but Oswalt has a better winning percentage, ERA+, and he is the only prominent Astros starter not to have a losing season. He has consistently been very good and last year was no different. If you look at the peripheral numbers you see what I’m talking about.

. . . . . . .. . . SO/9. . .BB/9. . .HR/9

2004. . . . . . .7.82. . ..2.35. . .0.65

2005. . . . . . .6.85. . ..1.79. . .0.67

2006. . . . . . .6.77. . ..1.55. . .0.73

2007. . . . . . .6.54. . ..2.55. . .0.59

2008. . . . . . .7.12. . ..2.03. . .0.99

2009. . . . . . .6.85. . ..2.08. . .0.94

Oswalt has essentially been the same pitcher throughout the period and his peripheral numbers show he actually had a slightly better 2009 than 2008. Unfortunately, the conventional numbers don’t always show that. He appears to have two or three good years left, but he will likely never be the pitcher he was in the mid 2000s. Nothing last forever.

Still, he is reasonably affordable for a pitcher that will give you 200 innings and a sub 4.00 ERA year in and year out. Plus, Oswalt doesn’t have the same problems that Berkman has. Almost everyone can use a pitcher of Oswalt’s caliber. The question comes down to where Oswalt is willing to go (he must waive his no trade clause) and who has the prospects the Astros want.

Oswalt was one of the biggest critics of Cecil Cooper and the two couldn’t seem to work together. Oswalt didn’t like how he was used and Cooper openly criticized the star pitcher in the media. It is impossible to know how much the manager affected Oswalt’s performance. It is hard to say how much of the last two years was aging and how much was Cooper. Both the Astros and any other team will be gambling on that in any possible deal.

From the outside looking in, there appeared to be a lot of circumstances where Oswalt was pulled in the middle of the inning with a lead only to see the lead evaporate in that inning. That affected not only his won-loss record, but his ERA. What we don’t know is how this affected his morale. A pitcher like Oswalt likely doesn’t need a pitching coach as much as the youngsters, but it will be interesting to see how Brad Mills manages the pitching staff.

Jake Peavy pulled in four prospects from the Chicago White Sox at the deadline. He had a full no trade clause like Oswalt and was not pitching as well as he had before (like Oswalt). Peavy is younger, but not as accomplished as Oswalt. Could Oswalt bring in a similar package from someone? I don’t see why not and more importantly, I don’t see why the Astros wouldn’t look into it. Combine a trade for two of the guys we have mentioned so far and you might have enough to find the next Jeff Bagwell.