The Trade Market: Wandy Rodriguez

We finish our series on possible players being traded with perhaps the most appealing Astro in the bunch. Roy Oswalt would probably garner the most prospects, but Wandy is younger, cheaper, and there are no barriers to trading him. Just about every team in the league would love to have Wandy on their team. The only problem is the Astros would love to have him too.

This is where things can get rather tough. Wandy Rodriguez will be 31 years old in 2010. I’ll bet that surprised many of you since it seemed like he came of age last season. One of the problems is that Wandy didn’t make his debut until he was 26 years old. Most pitchers of his caliber make their debuts when they are 23 or 24. If you shave a few seasons off his age he would become a prime candidate for a long-term deal. As it stands, you have to ask how many prime seasons he has left.

One of the other deceptive things about Wandy is that his wins, losses, and ERA have never matched his peripheral numbers. 2009 marked the third consecutive season where he has had a SO/BB ratio of 2.5 or better. Yet, over that span he is 32-32 with a 3.70 ERA. Those numbers hide the fact that he has been better in each progressive season as a pro. Naturally, both the Astros and other teams are looking at that now.

This provides the Astros with a bit of a dilemma. They have a pitcher coming off of a season with a 3.02 ERA and more than 200 innings. He is arbitration eligible and will be a free agent following the 2010 season. Do they want to sign a would be 31 year old to a three year deal, four year deal, or five year deal? He has gotten better, but any agent worth his salt will use that to their advantage.

. . . . . . . . . .ERA. . . . .FIP

Oswalt. . . . ..4.12. . . ..3.75

Rodriguez. . ..3.02. . . ..3.52

Paulino. . . . .6.27. . . . .5.11

Moehler.. . . .5.47. . . . .4.57

Norris. . . . . .4.53. . . . .4.77

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) tells us a lot. First, it gives us an idea of the true quality of the pitcher. In any season, a pitcher may enjoy a lot of luck or bad luck. 2009 saw Wandy’s bad luck go away and good luck take its place. Since we see good luck and bad luck alternate on a regular basis, FIP also becomes a predictor for the next season. This is a good thing for most Astros hurlers, but a bad thing for Wandy.

A 3.52 ERA would be nothing to sneeze at if he could duplicate his 205 innings. Put that on the free agent market and it could garner as much as ten million a season if not more depending on the run support he gets. So, the Astros are left with an impossible choice. They can tie up Wandy now (and thus blow any chances of signing a significant free agent this off-season), they can roll the dice and simply give him a one year deal, or deal him now and get two or three good prospects in return.

There are a few variables here. The first variable is to look at the rotation that was laid out above. Is that a championship rotation? Even if we added John Lackey (the consensus top free agent pitcher) and his FIP of 3.80, you would still have only three starters with ERAs under 4.50. That likely isn’t good enough to get the job done. The second variable could be the development of Wesley Wright.

Wright has been working as a starter in the Winter Leagues and is pitching brilliantly through five outings. His FIP this past season was 5.14 which puts him in the neighborhood of Felipe Paulino. If the Astros traded Wandy Rodriguez they could conceivably fill Rodriguez’s rotation spot with Wesley Wright while filling a couple of other holes with players brought in from the trade. One possible destination some people have mentioned is Las Angeles. The Angels likely cannot afford Lackey and can’t necessarily afford to bring in a high priced free agent. Wandy could net the Astros third base prospect Brandon Wood and a bullpen arm.

Wood is only 24 years old, but has played primarily in AAA the past three seasons. He has been blocked by Chone Figgins. He has 76 home runs in three seasons with .900+ OPS in three out of his last four minor league seasons. Chris Johnson hasn’t even managed an .800+ OPS season during that same time span. Jose Arredondo is only 25 years old and has two seasons under his belt. He is a combined 12-5 with a 3.48 ERA. He struggled last season, but he should bounce back and be a good 7th or 8th inning option. Get those two for Wandy and you have done well for yourself.