Assessing Value on Carlos Lee

As everyone knows, there are three Astros taking up nearly half of the estimated budget for 2010. Which of them is the best bargain? Which of them is the worst bargain? How do we even assess such a thing? Well, there is a stat called “wins above replacement” or WAR that can help us determine such things. So, we will take a look at where they rank in their position in terms of pay and performance. Theoretically, those two should match up.

However, I hardly ever go back one season on these rankings. This is where teams get themselves in trouble. Most analysts go back three or five years to see trends and get a baseline of performance to look at these things. We will go back three years because Lee has been an Astro for three and it tends to work better in projecting future performance.

Carlos Lee

Salary: 19.0 million

Position: OF

Salary Rank: 3

Carlos Lee ranked sixth in salary for any player in 2009. Think about that for a second. He is supposed to be the sixth best player in baseball. Does that seem right? There are only two outfielders that are paid more. So, he must be among the top five outfielders in baseball right?

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Year

Manny Ramirez. . . . ..10.1

Matt Holiday. . . . . . .19.8

Ryan Braun. . . . . . . .11.8

Carlos Lee. . . . . . . . ..9.1

Johnny Damon. . . . . ..8.9

Jason Bay. . . . . . . . . .6.5

Alfonso Soriano. . . . . .7.9

Carl Crawford. . . . . ..11.3

According to this short list of left fielders over the past three seasons, we see that Carlos Lee ranks as the fifth best left fielder over the past three years. Jason Bay’s numbers look low, but he had a horrible 2007, so those numbers are over the past two seasons. It also shows he should not get the money he thinks he should get. Overall, Lee is most comparable with Johnny Damon. His contract just expired.

Johnny Damon made 13 million dollars in 2009. That isn’t an insignificant sum, but we should note that the Yankees don’t underpay for anyone. 13 million would also end up being less than Lance Berkman (who is clearly a better player). While six million dollars may not seem like a lot of money, it probably would bring in an extra starter.

We will look at Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt later, but suffice it to say, Carlos Lee’s contract is the one the Astros would like to rid themselves of. Unfortunately, his no trade clause is not up until after this season. Lee may be one of the most overpaid players in baseball. That is saying something for a guy that drives in 100 or more runs every season.