Laying it all out

Some of you have read the last few entries and wondered what this all means. Why is this guy focusing so much on fielding and base running? The answer is pretty simple. For those that read the book Moneyball you know that the book wasn’t about OBP, OPS, or any other alphabet soup statistic. I love those numbers myself, but if some team decided to hire me (are you listening Astros) I wouldn’t focus on them entirely either. It is about looking for cheap ways to improve your team.

At the time, OBP was undervalued, but the market is constantly changing and we are finding that teams are pretty on the ball when it comes to OBP, SLG, and OPS. The lag is coming in base running and fielding. Some teams do a good job of evaluating fielding and some do not. Base running analysis is still fairly early in the process. So, teams can exploit that and get better for relatively small dollars.

The Astros are in a position where they are pitching poor and hitting poor in a market where pitchers and hitters are king. If the Astros focus on position players that may not hit as well as others, but can field the ball well (and more importantly get to more balls) then their pitchers will improve as a result. A scouting report of the 2010 hitters is painful. So, at least the club can get to more balls defensively and run the bases intelligently the few times they are there. So, here is a position by position look at the club’s fielding and base running.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .FB. . . . .BR

Humberto Quintero. . .N/A. . . ..-8

J.R. Towles. . . . . . . .N/A. . . …0

The numbers we do use for catchers indicates that Quintero is one of the best defensive catchers in the game. If he has a weakness it is in his ability to block pitches in the dirt, but it isn’t a glaring weakness. Ironically, this is the one area where Towles shines defensively. Neither is a gifted base runner, but you don’t expect gifted base runners at catcher.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .FB. . . . .BR

Lance Berkman. . . . ..0. . . . .-10

Lance Berkman is all over the place when you look at his career numbers in both categories. Since 2004 (when he became a first basemen) he has been an above average defensive first baseman. As a base runner he is all over the map. He had a brilliant 2008 campaign and followed it up with a sub-par 2009 version. His career average is -4 and I would expect a move in that area.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . ..FB. . . . .BR

Kaz Matsui. . . . . . ..-7. . . . .17

Edwin Maysonet. . . ..0. . . . …0

This represents an intriguing spot for the Astros. I must admit, the Kaz Matsui experience has taught me a lot as an analyst. When the Astros signed him I thought it was a good move because he was coming off of a brilliant fielding and base running season. When you look back at the numbers in retrospect, it was his only good season with the glove. Career years are possible in all aspects. Maysonet got the shaft last year in terms of playing time. All he did was hit well and handle himself professionally with the glove and on the basepaths. The Astros know what they have in Matsui, but Maysonet could be better….or worse.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .FB. . . . .BR

Geoff Blum. . . . . . . . . .-5. . . . .-9

Jeff Keppinger. . . . . . .-11. . . . .-3

I present to you the main area the Astros should be concerned with. Blum is normally a good defender, so I wouldn’t pay much attention to his numbers, but he is hardly a gifted defender at any position. His best role is being a solid backup at every infield slot. Keppinger is a similar player and should serve a similar role. Put together they can’t hit, field, or run the bases particularly well. Other than that, they are really nice guys. The Astros decision to sign Blum again shows you what they think of Chris Johnson. I am skeptical of their scouting normally, but here they are spot on. He is not the answer.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .FB. . . . .BR

Miguel Tejada. . . . ..-21. . . ..-21

At least he was consistent in 2009. Tejada’s problems with the glove have been coming for some time now. His surprisingly good 2008 campaign was the only one of the last four where he was above average. Meanwhile, his base running has been a huge albatross on this team for two years. Leading the league twice in GIDP will do that. Tommy Manzella has no numbers to analyze with the big club, but he comes with a top-notch reputation as a fielder and I suspect he will be better on the bases if only by default.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .FB. . . . .BR

Carlos Lee. . . . . . ..-14. . . ..-36

Michael Bourn. . . . ….9. . . . .55

Hunter Pence. . . . . .16. . . ..-15

To these numbers in perspective you should know that Michael Bourn led the league (by 5) in the base running category. His two outfield mates nearly erased that advantage by themselves. I have hope for Pence because a lot of his was GIDP and stupid base running mistakes. Tejada’s numbers notwithstanding, you don’t normally repeat bad luck in the GIDP department. Besides, I have a feeling Mills is going to fix a lot of the base running malaise that has hurt this team. Carlos Lee on the other hand looks like he’s running in quicksand. As they used to say, they don’t time him with a stopwatch, they time him with a calendar.

If you have made it this far then congratulations. You see that the Astros should be looking for fielding at third base. They can improve at short and second if they go with the younger players. Chone Figgins appears to be going to the Mariners. If the rumors about them getting Orlando Hudson are also true then Rawlings need only hang out there for the Gold Gloves. As for our Astros, they might be smart to look at Pedro Feliz. He isn’t much of a hitter, but he will fit their budget and at least bolster their fielding on the infield.