Winter Meetings Begin

Ed Wade began the Winter Meetings in inauspicious fashion by choosing to spend the day in organizational meetings. You would have thought they could have done this before, but I guess it couldn’t wait. Anyhow, Wade addressed the media and laid out the Astros priorities for the off-season: a closer, offense, and eighth inning reliever.

The club has decided that starting pitching will be too expensive. In practical terms, we will have to wait until tomorrow to find out if Jose Valverde accepts arbitration. If he does then the Astos off-season is pretty much mapped out. He would likely get about ten million which would limit what they can spend elsewhere. If they can only be so lucky.

I hate to ask this question, but I will anyway: what good is a closer on a second division team? It’s like having a great backup QB on a team with a lousy defense in the NFL. It’s a nice thing to have, but is that really the best use of your resources. Below, is a quick look at the wins above replacement for closers on playoff teams. We will compare that to the rest of the team and relief pitchers.

. . . . . . . . . . . .WAR. . . .RP. . . .Team

Papelbon. . . . . ..1.95. . . .1. . . . . .10

Street. . . . . . . .1.55. . . .1. . . . . .11

Fuentes. . . . . . .0.36. . . .6. . . . . .20

Broxton. . . . . . .2.86. . . .1. . . . . ..8

Nathan. . . . . . . .1.89. . . .1. . . . …8

Rivera. . . . . . . ..1.98. . . .2. . . . . .14

Lidge. . . . . . . . .0.00. . . .3. . . . . .18

Franklin. . . . . . ..0.91. . . .1. . . . . .11

Five of the eight playoff teams were lucky enough to have their closer also be their best reliever, but they also ranked no higher than eighth on the roster. I’d be willing to bet that we would see similar results throughout all 30 teams. So, if the closer is usually somewhere around the 12th most valuable player on the team. So, if that is the case then why are the Astros planning on making their closer the fourth highest paid player on the team?

The answer is fairly simple, it doesn’t make sense, but everyone else does it. Look back at those eight playoff teams and more than half of those closers are making the kind of money the Astros are planning on paying a closer. If you do what they do then you look smart even if they aren’t very smart. In other words, if you go with the herd then you are safe. Compare to that to the local eleven. They thought a halfback pass was a good idea. They are ridiculed primarily because it didn’t work.

When you do what has always been done then you are blameless when it doesn’t work. It’s always been done, so that’s why we did it. We were either unlucky or we had the wrong guy. It couldn’t be that it’s a bad idea overall. We’ve been focusing on third basemen, so let’s look at the guys that were available this off-season on the open market.

. . . . . . . . . . . . .WAR

Mike Lowell. . . . …1.17

Albert Collaspo. . ..2.75

Chone Figgins. . . .5.88

Joe Crede. . . . . . .1.84

Adam Kennedy. . . .1.79

Pedro Feliz. . . . . ..1.19

Adrian Beltra. . . . .2.33

Mark DeRosa. . . . .1.65

These are the guys that are (or were) available as third basemen via free agency or trade coming into the winter meetings with one or more WAR. Jose Valverde managed a 0.66 WAR last season. Jeff Fulchino led the club with 0.76. So, would you rather spend 10 million a season on say Adrian Beltre or Valverde? That was a down season for Beltre. He usually throws up in the neighborhood of 3 or 3.5 per season.

Another way to put it is to use a mathematical term like dispersion. What is the appreciable difference between Adrian Beltre and Geoff Blum? The answer is roughly two wins last season and close to to three wins in normal seasons. What’s the appreciable difference between Jose Valverde and his likely replacement? The answer is no more than half a win. So, what should the priority be? On a team like the Astros it should never be the closer.