Grading Ed Wade

We aim to please here at Kissmyastros.com, so I will look at the last reader question to come through the pike. The question was fairly simple, but these things are never as simple as we think. How do we grade Ed Wade so far as a general manager? The question sounds easy enough doesn’t it?

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. When we evaluate any general manager we have to separate the analysis into two parts: how good is the plan and then how well does the general manager execute the plan? They sound similar, but are really very different. The famous line about the best laid plans of mice and men comes to mind. A general manager can have a great plan, but if he doesn’t execute that plan he’s dead. Similarly, a GM can be a great talent evaluator, but if he doesn’t have a plan he’s dead.

For the Astros, this is difficult at best because the general manager doesn’t set the plan. As best we can tell, the plan appears to be to compete as best as possible with a payroll in the neighborhood of 100 million dollars until Wade can rebuild the farm system. Naturally, the farm system side of the plan will look better because it is a better plan. Wade has had two solid drafts and the international scouting department is beginning to bear fruit. The 2010 draft should be Wade’s best. He has a higher pick than he ever has and he will have at least one extra pick when Valverde signs with someone else. If he is lucky he will sign with a playoff caliber team so the Astros can get another first rounder as well.

Unfortunately, it will take at least another two seasons before enough of Wade’s picks will be able to make an impact. Rebuilding is a slow process. The Astros still rank last in most farm system rankings despite two solid drafts. If they can have a very good draft this year and another in 2011 then the farm system will likely be back where it should be.

It is the major league plan that has a lot of people worried. Funny, but Wade’s grade depends greatly on which side of the fence you sit on. The sabermetric crowd usually gets a good belly laugh when Ed Wade’s name is mentioned. Yet, the traditionalists like him. He makes plenty of moves and follows the traditional philosophy of having a strong pen. The likes of Rob Dibble and Jody McDonald on XM 175 were lauding him this past week for his moves. The truth is usually somewhere in between.

When you focus on the numbers you can miss some things you would get by knowing the players. When you spend your time getting to know the players you end up getting emotionally attached and losing objectivity. For instance, your traditional analysts often talk about how a guy is a “good guy” and will be great in a clubhouse. Funny, I don’t hear them badmouth too many guys.

There aren’t that many teams in the Astros particular revenue situation. There are several that are better off, but most are worse off. When you have a 100 million payroll you eventually have to go in one of two directions. Either, you keep adding as high priced players get old or you barter off those guys and start over. Drayton McLane’s plan is do neither of those things. Yet, the Astros still need to compete for a championship. This is a stupid plan and it’s doomed to failure, but we have to remember that this isn’t Ed Wade’s plan. To be fair, we don’t know what his plan would be if he were allowed to use his. We simply have to go with what we know.

Therefore, every move Wade makes has to be seen from this point of view. He can’t gut the ballclub and start over and he can’t go out and join the John Lackey sweepstakes either. So, he makes creative moves that either work out or don’t. When we evaluate those moves we must look at how it relates to the plan. Too many people assume the Astros should rebuild and go from there. Yes, they should, but remember, that’s not the plan he’s working under.

When you look at the relief pitching situation, you have to remember that he is trying to get reliable late inning relief at a discount. So far, he’s done a good job of that overall. He has overpaid for guys like Brocail and Lyons, but it’s all part of the plan. He thinks that the club will compete if they have a deep pen. So far, he hasn’t been wrong.

He also has learned some from past mistakes. He has said the club will not get guys like Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton again. Yes, we were saying he was wrong then, but at least he isn’t going down that road again. Most of his trades have been fairly shrewd in that he has gotten what he wanted without giving up a ton. Simply put, he knows what he’s doing in terms of getting what he wants. Yet, we could question the wisdom in terms of what he wants.

Was Ed Wade my choice for GM? Nope. Yet, given the plan he is just as effective as anyone else. The plan is foolish at best. It is unclear as to whether the current stars will still be stars when the bulk of the talent comes of age. Teams like Houston usually have windows between four and six years to compete. If they traded their stars now (admittedly difficult with no trade clauses) they could acquire talent that would come of age in two or three years. That would be at the same time as some of the guys in the minors. Then, they would compete. Now, we have to hope he can pull a rabbit out of a hate. It’s not his fault his owner is more concerned with attendance than what is in the long-term interest of the club.