Fun with Projections

When I say fun with projections I mean exactly that. Projecting performance has been going on as long as people have been playing fantasy baseball. However, that art has become a little more science in recent years as long as you realize its limitations. Today, we will look at the Bill James Handbook and how it projects the Astros hitters.

The first rule we must follow is that we need to throw the home runs, runs, and RBIs aside. Projecting those numbers is next to impossible and really quite meaningless. When you stick to the rate statistics (average, OBP, and SLG) then you can get a pretty good idea of what a guy is going to accomplish.

The second rule is that you still must use multiple projections to get a good idea of what is in store for a guy. Different sabermetricians use different systems. Some focus exclusively on past performance and simply ratchet up or down depending on a player’s age and home ballpark. Others take other factors like injuries and new acquisitions on a team to come up with their projections. Before the off-season is done we will look at CHONE’s projections and Baseball Prospectus when their edition is out in February.

As any good stat guy will tell you, there is no telling how these will turn out. Most of the times your projections work well, but no one guessed that Michael Bourn would do what he did last year. Naturally, there are some negative surprises as well. So, I offer these Bill James projections for mostly entertainment, but it also demonstrates where the so-called experts seeing the Astros go next season.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS

Humberto Quintero. . .249/286/358/644

Lance Berkman. . . . ..283/406/518/924

Kaz Matsui. . . . . . . ..263/317/380/697

Pedro Feliz. . . . . . . .253/296/400/696

Tommy Manzella.. . . .No Projection Avail

Carlos Lee. . . . . . . ..293/351/503/854

Michael Bourn. . . . . ..271/341/360/701

Hunter Pence. . . . . ..291/351/509/860

Lance Berkman is the only player that is projected to turn in an all-star level performance. Naturally, missing Manzella’s projection leaves a hole in what we can expect. We could predict his numbers being close to Humberto Quintero and if that is the case there will be two hitters in the lineup with a sub 650 OPS. That’s not good. Three others have OPS projections between 690 and 701. That leaves three hitters projected to have OPSs better than 701. That’s not pretty.

However, the Astros have invested pretty heavily in their bench. So far, they have four players committed to being on the bench. They will have an open competition at the catcher spot and an open competition for the last spot in the outfield. We will include J.R. Towles because he will likely be the backup catcher.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS

Geoff Blum. . . . . . . . . .235/297/359/656

Jeff Keppinger. . . . . . ..292/348/395/743

Edwin Maysonet. . . . . ..No Projection Avail

Jason Michaels. . . . . . ..245/328/381/709

J.R. Towles. . . . . . . . . .No Projection Avail

It doesn’t bode well when Bill James doesn’t bother to project your numbers. Maysonet may end up being the everyday second baseman, but there were no numbers here. CHONE is an internet based projection, so they likely will have all of these guys. However, before we get to the CHONE projections we must take a look at the pitching projections from Bill James. However, we will do that next time.

Imagine, when you look at the projections above keep in mind this little nugget: James’ projections are usually the highest around. That shouldn’t make you feel better when you look at those rates. The Astros likely will have one of the two or three worst offenses in the National League next year with last place being a decent possibility.