CHONE Hitting Projections

Hello folks from beautiful Baton Rouge, Louisiana. I am enjoying Christmas with the in laws, so I won’t write much this week, but I thought I would include the CHONE projections on the Astros hitters like I did with the Bill James Handbook last week. It’s slowed down this off-season since the Astros filled up their 40 man rosters by the irreplaceable Jason Michaels.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS

Quintero. . . . . . . . . . ..247/293/367/660

Berkman. . . . . . . . . . ..273/375/496/871

Matsui. . . . . . . . . . . . .258/316/369/685

Feliz. . . . . . . . . . . . . ..258/301/410/711

Manzella.. . . . . . . . . . .246/298/351/649

Lee. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .290/339/499/838

Bourn. . . . . . . . . . . . ..268/338/368/706

Pence. . . . . . . . . . . . .284/343/486/829

Look no further than this right here as to why the Astros will not play .500 ball this year. People can hound me for being a pessimist. It doesn’t have to be that way. This team could play young players and get them some experience. A year with some of these guys in the lineup is a wasted year. No one gets excited about a ball-club playing out the string in April.

I like the CHONE projections for most of the players, but they consistently undersell Lance Berkman. Berkman is probably the most under-appreciated player in the NL. The fact that it is an internet projection also allows them to update projections for players like Feliz. I like Feliz for the basic reason that there is no one else there to play third base in the minors that is credible. Chris Johnson simply doesn’t cut it and is the poster child for the dearth of talent in the Astros upper levels.

Overall, you see the same thing as with the other projections. You see three regulars projected to an OPS north of .800. You see three more with an OPS around .700 and then the last two with OPS projections well below 700. That is not the makings of a good offense. In fact, it is the making of an offense that looks to finish close to last in runs scored.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS

Towles. . . . . . . . . . . ..255/335/413/748

Blum. . . . . . . . . . . . . .235/296/363/659

Keppinger.. . . . . . . . . .285/343/401/744

Maysonet.. . . . . . . . . .235/302/334/636

Michaels. . . . . . . . . . ..239/312/386/698

If we look at the bench there is actually hope behind the dish and at second base if the Astros choose to take it. Keppinger will likely be the same in terms of defense as Matsui, so gaining that much in offense would be a good idea. Would the Astros play Keppinger more often than Matsui? I doubt it. The same is true of Towles behind the dish. Of course, CHONE has been predicting good things for Towles the last three seasons.

A quick look through past projections shows why we shouldn’t get overly excited about them. However, when you look at the projections for the whole team you see several disturbing trends. First and foremost, a majority of the players have OBPs around .300 or even below. That is unacceptable for any big league offense. Secondly, less than half of the team projects to a SLG over .400. Put those two together and you get a team that won’t hit extra base hits and won’t take the free pass. That’s not a good combination.

The next set of hitting projections will come out in February, so we have a while to wait. In the meantime, we will look at the pitching projections and take a look around the league at the news that affects the Astros. I hope everyone has a Happy Holidays and I’ll probably see you again before the New Year.